What is Value Betting? Complete Guide for Beginners

What is Value Betting?

Value betting is a strategy where you place bets that have a higher probability of winning than the odds suggest. In other words, you're looking for situations where the bookmaker has underestimated the true probability of an outcome.

The Basic Formula

If this value is positive, you have found a value bet.

Example

Let's say you believe Team A has a 50% chance of winning (probability = 0.50), but the bookmaker offers odds of 2.20.

Value = (0.50 × 2.20) - 1 = 0.10 or 10%

This is a value bet with a 10% edge!

How to Find Value Bets

1. Compare Odds Across Bookmakers

Using platforms like Scorecast, you can compare odds from 20+ bookmakers instantly. Significant differences often indicate value opportunities.

2. Develop Your Own Models

Create statistical models to estimate true probabilities. Compare your estimates with bookmaker odds.

3. Follow Sharp Bookmakers

Pinnacle and Asian bookmakers are known for sharp lines. When soft bookmakers offer better odds than Pinnacle, it might be value.

4. Monitor Line Movements

Sharp money moves lines. If odds are moving in one direction but you disagree, there might be value on the other side.

Why Value Betting Works

The key to profitable betting isn't picking winners—it's finding odds that don't reflect true probabilities. Even if you win only 45% of your bets, you can be profitable if you consistently find value.

The Math Behind It

If you bet $100 on 100 value bets with 10% expected value each:

This is why professional bettors focus on value, not just winners.

Common Mistakes to Avoid

1. **Betting without comparing odds** - Always check multiple bookmakers

2. **Ignoring bankroll management** - Even value bets can lose in streaks

3. **Chasing losses** - Stick to your strategy

4. **Overestimating your edge** - Be conservative in probability estimates

Start Finding Value Today

Use Scorecast's odds comparison tool to instantly see which bookmaker offers the best odds for any match. Combined with your analysis, this is the first step to value betting success.