10 Football Statistics Every Bettor Should Track

Why Statistics Matter in Football Betting

Bookmakers use sophisticated models based on thousands of data points. To compete, you need to understand which statistics actually predict outcomes.

The 10 Most Important Statistics

1. Expected Goals (xG)

**What it is:** The quality of chances created, not just shots taken.

**Why it matters:** xG better predicts future performance than actual goals. A team outperforming their xG will likely regress.

**Scorecast tip:** Compare team xG with actual goals to find value.

2. Expected Goals Against (xGA)

**What it is:** Quality of chances conceded.

**Why it matters:** Shows defensive strength beyond clean sheets. Low xGA = solid defense.

3. Shots on Target %

**What it is:** Percentage of shots that hit the target.

**Why it matters:** More predictive than total shots. Quality over quantity.

4. Possession Adjusted Statistics

**What it is:** Stats normalized for possession percentage.

**Why it matters:** A team with 30% possession creating 1.5 xG is more impressive than 70% possession with 1.5 xG.

5. PPDA (Passes Per Defensive Action)

**What it is:** Measures pressing intensity. Lower = more aggressive pressing.

**Why it matters:** High-pressing teams create more turnovers but may tire late in games.

6. Head-to-Head Record

**What it is:** Historical results between two teams.

**Why it matters:** Some matchups consistently produce certain outcomes. Styles make fights.

7. Home/Away Form Split

**What it is:** Performance difference between home and away.

**Why it matters:** Some teams are dramatically different at home vs away. Markets often undervalue this.

8. Goals Timing

**What it is:** When goals are scored/conceded.

**Why it matters:** Teams strong in final 15 minutes are valuable for live betting and Asian handicaps.

9. Set Piece Statistics

**What it is:** Goals and chances from corners, free kicks.

**Why it matters:** Set pieces account for ~30% of goals. Often undervalued in markets.

10. Key Player Impact

**What it is:** Team performance with/without key players.

**Why it matters:** Markets react slowly to injuries/suspensions. First-mover advantage.

Statistics That Are Overrated

Possession %

Barcelona dominated possession for years but possession alone doesn't win games

Many successful teams thrive with low possession

Total Shots

20 shots from 30 yards aren't worth 5 shots in the box

Always look at shot quality (xG) instead

Clean Sheets

Small sample size makes them unreliable

xGA is more predictive

How to Use Statistics Effectively

1. Context Matters

Was the team winning/losing?

Who was the opponent?

Game state affects stats dramatically

2. Sample Size

Minimum 10 games for reliable patterns

Early season stats are noisy

3. Combine Multiple Stats

No single stat tells the whole story

Look for patterns across metrics

4. Compare to Market Expectations

Stats only matter if the market hasn't priced them in

Look for discrepancies

Using Scorecast for Statistical Analysis

Scorecast provides comprehensive match statistics:

Pre-match form analysis

Head-to-head records

Live match statistics

Historical data for research

Combine our data with odds comparison to find statistical edges.

Conclusion

Statistics don't guarantee wins, but they help you make more informed decisions. Focus on predictive stats like xG, ignore misleading ones like total shots, and always compare to what the market expects.